Thursday, August 21, 2008

Draft Futuring Prediction

Socio-Technical Futuring
Technology Prognostication (draft)

Issue: Attempt to define the Impact and Future IT Technology support for education

Background: Education has long been the foundation of our society. Issues and problems in the current US education system are reflected in social problems such as chronic unemployment, crime, social unrest and continued inequality.
As such, the educational system from pre-school to post graduate study must improve to meet the next generation problems. As a backdrop to the chronic need to improve the educational system, there is also a need to improve the competitiveness of the US in the world market.
The current educational philosophy provides a structure curriculum that provides a brick and mortar experience with teachers and other students. The socialization provided by this experience is a critical part of the learning experience; however, the process for imparting knowledge to the students should be reviewed.
The current philosophy for teaching is similar to physical training which is achieved by repeating a task until “muscle memory” is achieved. The future of education and the imparting of knowledge should change to meet the future challenges.
Further, for students that can’t take advantage of brick and mortar schools, must be provided an equivalent learning experience.
The education process is based on a couple of key concepts:
· Learning through memorization,
· Mentoring of students by faculty in difficult areas,
· Practice of learned principles,
· Measurement of learned principles through tests

Education has been hindered (to a varying degree) by:
· Social skills of the teachers
· Time available for teaching required skills
· Varied learning speeds of the students
· Reliance on past learning methods

Discussion: The needs analysis approach (as discussed in the earlier white paper) is used to establish the framework for the technology forecast.
Table 1 provides an overview of the need analysis. In twenty years, students will face a bewildering array of information available from sources as diverse as the follow-on internet, vast data warehouses, and the composite accumulation of information from the human experience. The needs for students at elementary, high school, undergraduate and graduate levels of study will greatly increase. Therefore this forecast will only look at the future needs of the elementary students.
The future student will not be required to attend a brick and mortar school; however, some vestiges of the schools will remain to encourage social growth and interaction. In general, the student will no longer deal with keyboards and other mechanical means of interface to the educational system. Communications will be accomplished through voice and movement with sensor systems to “read” the student’s non-verbal responses.
Educational learning method will be tailor to the individual by unlimited availability of all teaching venues. Thus if a student is more arts inclined, advanced arts programs will be available and specially tailored math programs for art students will also be available. Further since the manner of presentation of information is critical to understanding, educational venues that are tailored to an individual’s method of understanding will also be available.
While a universal language may not be available for all students great strides will be made to consolidate curriculums around a couple of major languages. From these major language “strings”, a more consistent approach to education will be developed. This consolidation will allow more effort to be placed on the development of individually tailor-able educational experience.
Finally, significant progress will be made on the next generation learning model. The current educational model is based on repetition much like athletes’ use practice to define “muscle memory”. The new model will take advantage of the inherent learning process of humans to modulate progress, minimize needless repetition and provide a better understanding of the underlying concepts. This model will be based more on the investigation or curiosity than structure learning.

Table 1. Need Statement Overview
Need Area
Time Frame
Resolved need
Possible Technologies
Technology Prediction
Educational Time
+20 yrs
Improve the time for educational learning for both brick and mortar and virtual student
1 person transport, non-space travel, multi-terrain, quiet
IT broad band at home (H),
Limited Brick and Mortar time (H)

At home education with social interaction opportunities
Learning method

Provide efficient means for improving comprehension of subject
1 language educational system with increased emphasis on tailor-able individual options
US wide consolidated educational system (H),
Tailorable learning (H)
Virtual classroom based on a single educational system. Tailoring of the instruction will be provided through limited AI.
Learning Method

Provide efficient means for improving comprehension of subject
Technology aided interface for education that support very young students
Sensor enabled response monitoring (H),
Non-mechanical interface with computers (H)
Language based computer interactions with sensor feedback
Learning Method

Provide efficient means for improving comprehension of subject
Break through on increase retention of knowledge not using the “muscle memory”
Curiosity based education (M),
Unstructured Learning (L)
Methodology will be developed to expand the natural curiosity approach to education

Conclusion/Prediction: The classroom of the future will be significantly different from the current classroom. A significant part of the improvement will be technology based; however, significant strides will also be made in the basic educational methodology. The future class room will include state-of-the-art computer interfaces that allow interaction with the computer for even the youngest children. This interface will be human interaction based using natural language and sensor perceptions of the child. The interaction will be focused on a limited number of primary languages and will be more universal across countries. The methodology will be adaptable to each student through AI techniques. Finally, the methodology for learning will migrate to a natural curiosity concept as opposed to the current repetitive approach.

[1]“Teachers of the Year - Thank You, Charlie Rose!”, Joan Brennan,-Charlie-Rose!&id=1325161

[2] “Internet Live Teaching Solutions”, Gregory Demetriades

[3] “Issues and Trends in Curriculum - From Technology to Global Awareness”, Michelle Kawamura ,

[4] “Motivate! New Methods Exist That You Can Use Right Now with Unmotivated Students” Ruth Wells, Ruth WellsLevel: PlatinumGet much more information on this topic at Author Ruth Herman Wells MS is the director of Youth Change, ( Sign up for her free Problem-Kid Problem-Solver ... ...!-New-Methods-Exist-That-You-Can-Use-Right-Now-with-Unmotivated-Students&id=307433

[5] “Predictions Regarding Future Or Future Concepts”, Sarfaraz Ali ,
Sarfaraz AliLevel: PlatinumWho am I? Journeying through darkness, with a faint hope of leaving behind a spark - that would give reason to my existence. I often have ... ...
[6] “Is A Universal Language Coming With The New Age?”, Seth Garrison ,
Seth GarrisonMy name is Seth Garrison. I have been a certified Overlight facilitator since 2003, have a certificate in spiritual communication and am the creator of ... ...

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